- Development of pre-registration, relative to 2019
By 2019, as many as 24,017 pre-registrations had been made (without transnistrian region). On 7 September 2020, there were 28,821 pre-registrations recorded the system managed by CEC (without transnistrian region).[1] We hence notice that in the context of Presidential elections of 1 November 2020, a maximum of 4,804 pre-registrations have been made.
The top 10 states with the highest number of pre-registrations made in the past 12 months are presented in Table 1.[2] Thus, we note that the citizens of the Republic of Moldova who will be in the Russian Federation on the election day have proven to be the most active in the pre-registration process. The number of their pre-registrations increased 3.5 times. In the case of the other 9 countries, the number of pre-registrations grew no more than 1.5-1.1 times compared to 2019.
Table 1
| No | State | 2019 | July 2020 | August 2020 | 7 September 2020 | Development | Share
2019/2020 |
| 1 | Russian Federation | 571 | 605 | 743 | 1998 | 1427 | 3.5 |
| 2 | Denmark | 205 | 218 | 277 | 310 | 105 | 1.5 |
| 3 | Germany | 2194 | 2243 | 2389 | 2624 | 430 | 1.2 |
| 4 | United Kingdom | 3504 | 3569 | 3734 | 4093 | 589 | 1.2 |
| 5 | Canada | 965 | 1014 | 1066 | 1092 | 127 | 1.1 |
| 6 | France | 1968 | 2017 | 2075 | 2223 | 255 | 1.1 |
| 7 | Romania | 2904 | 2981 | 3089 | 3259 | 355 | 1.1 |
| 8 | Italy | 5244 | 5330 | 5483 | 5885 | 641 | 1.1 |
| 9 | Ireland | 1394 | 1426 | 1469 | 1 554 | 160 | 1.1 |
| 10 | USA | 1720 | 1759 | 1812 | 1858 | 138 | 1.1 |
- The impact of pre-registrations made in 2020 on the establishment of polling stations abroad
According to the information provided by CEC, all active (not cancelled by voters) preliminary statements, made between 2018 – 2020, will be taken into account in order to establish abroad PSs.[3] In the opinion of Promo-LEX, this decision can undermine the accuracy and objectivity of the analysis for the 3 criteria on the basis of which the PS are established abroad.[4] In the context of the Presidential election of 1 November 2020, Promo-LEX analysed the establishment of PS abroad on the basis of both the total number of pre-registrations and pre-registrations made during 2020 (see Table 1).
Thus, we find that in case of PS strictly based on the pre-registrations made during 2020, more PS will be established in Russian Federation (+8 PS) and Denmark (+1 PS). On the other hand, in case of establishment of PS according to all active pre-registrations (submitted between 2018-2020), more PS will be established in Belgium (+1 PS), Canada (+1 PS), Italy (+3 PS), Romania (+2 PS) and USA (+2 PS).
Table 1
| No | State | No PS according to pre-registrations of 2020 |
No PS according to pre-registrations of 2018-2020 |
States having difference in PS number |
| 1 | Belgium | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | Canada | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| 3 | Czech Republic | 2 | 2 | |
| 4 | Denmark | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 5 | Russian Federation | 31 | 23 | -8 |
| 6 | France | 7 | 7 | |
| 7 | Germany | 8 | 8 | |
| 8 | Greece | 2 | 2 | |
| 9 | Ireland | 4 | 4 | |
| 10 | Israel | 3 | 3 | |
| 11 | Italy | 27 | 30 | 3 |
| 12 | United Kingdom | 10 | 10 | |
| 13 | Poland | 3 | 3 | |
| 14 | Portugal | 2 | 2 | |
| 15 | Netherlands | 2 | 2 | |
| 16 | Romania | 9 | 11 | 2 |
| 17 | Spain | 4 | 4 | |
| 18 | USA | 6 | 8 | 2 |
| 19 | Turkey | 3 | 3 | |
| 20 | Ukraine | 3 | 3 | |
| 21 | Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Cyprus, Croatia, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates, Estonia, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Qatar, Sweden and Hungary | by 1 PS (17) | by 1 PS (17) | |
| Total | 150 | 150 | ||
* Overall, CEC has planned the establishment of 150 PSs abroad.[5] At the first stage, the PS opened mandatory within the diplomatic and consular missions of the Republic of Moldova were excluded from the number of 150 PS. At the second stage, 110 outstanding PS were distributed according to the data of the three criteria set out by the law, including the only variable criterion which can be determined by voters – pre-registration.
In conclusion, Promo-LEX outlines the important role of the pre-registration procedure as a criterion for polling stations establishment.
Similarly, we underline that pre-registration is the only criterion which can still be modified/influenced by voters, and currently only the dynamic of the pre-registration process can still influence the number of PS established in each state individually (statistical data on the other indicators being already final). Subsequently, we call to all voters abroad to make use of this instrument until the deadline set by law – 16 September 2020 included.
According to Promo-LEX estimates, using the active pre-registration data of 2018-2020 results in opening more polling stations in the following states: Belgium (+1 PS), Canada (+1 PS), Italy (+3 PS), Romania (+2 PS) and USA (+2 PS).
According to Promo-LEX estimates, using the active pre-registrations made in 2020 only results in opening more polling stations in the following states: Russian Federation (+8 PS) and Denmark (+1 PS).
The full analysis can be accessed here.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
[1] The figure of 28,821 pre-registrations includes all preliminary statements made from 2018 to 7 September 2020.
[2] Since the last pre-registrations, made in the context of the new parliamentary elections in October 20, 2019.
[3] CEC Letter No CEC 8/2592 of 17 August 2020.
[4] Report 1 on the Observation Mission of the Presidential Election in the Republic of Moldova of 1 November 2020.
[5] CEC Decision No 3146 of 3 December 2019 approving the Budget of the Central Electoral Commission for 2020.